Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cardiff vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
15:00
Millwall
Millwall
12/26/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
45%
Millwall
model favours
26%29%45%
0–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cardiff26%
×Draw29%
Millwall45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
0.89
Millwall
1.27

Millwall creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 29 away

creates per match

Cardiff
0.75
Millwall
1.17

allows per match

Cardiff
1.38
Millwall
1.03

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
55%
Cardiff or Millwall
71%
Draw or Millwall
74%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
9%
Millwall wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
59%
Cardiff 2+ goals
22%
Cardiff 3+ goals
6%
Millwall 1+ goals
72%
Millwall 2+ goals
36%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
37%
Millwall (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 0.75 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Millwall attack 1.17 + Cardiff defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cardiff scores more
26%
level
29%
Millwall scores more
45%

Millwall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Millwall
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cardiff host Millwall

December 26, 2026: Cardiff take on Millwall in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cardiff host Millwall at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.