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Cardiff vs Derby — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
19:45
Derby
Derby
3/2/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
40%
Derby
model favours
33%27%40%

Cardiff have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cardiff33%
×Draw27%
Derby40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.18
Derby
1.33

Derby creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cardiff
0.79
Derby
1.28

allows per match

Cardiff
1.37
Derby
1.56

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
60%
Cardiff or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
67%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
14%
Derby wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
69%
Cardiff 2+ goals
33%
Cardiff 3+ goals
12%
Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
38%
Derby 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
45%
Derby (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Derby away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 0.79 + Derby defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Derby attack 1.28 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cardiff scores more
33%
level
27%
Derby scores more
40%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face Derby (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting Derby. Match starts March 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host Derby at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.