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Cardiff vs Brighton — League #48 2026

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Brighton
Brighton
A. Zeqiri 55'
J. Moder 9'
8/24/2021League #48League #48 · 2nd RoundCardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cardiff6%
×Draw12%
Brighton82%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
0.75
Brighton
3.05

Brighton creates 307% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.00
Brighton
3.50

allows per match

Cardiff
2.60
Brighton
0.50

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Brighton+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Brighton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
18%
Cardiff or Brighton
88%
Draw or Brighton
94%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
2%
Brighton wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
53%
Cardiff 2+ goals
17%
Cardiff 3+ goals
4%
Brighton 1+ goals
95%
Brighton 2+ goals
80%
Brighton 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
7%
Brighton (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Brighton away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.00 + Brighton defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Brighton attack 3.50 + Cardiff defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Cardiff scores more
6%
level
12%
Brighton scores more
82%

Brighton at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. ModerBrightonBrighton · M
8.3

Match Events

9'
J. Moder↳ E. Mwepu
34'
O. Denham← S. Morrison
55'
Will Vaulks
55'
A. Zeqiri↳ M. Caicedo
67'
K. Moore← J. Collins
67'
R. Colwill← J. Murphy
68'
O. Offiah← T. Richards
68'
A. Moran← M. Leonard
73'
Ryan Wintle
78'
Curtis Nelson
81'
E. Ferguson← E. Mwepu

Possession

47%Cardiff

Shots

13Cardiff

Pass accuracy

49%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffBrighton
Overview
47%Possession53%
13Total Shots8
7Corners2
11Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots8
4On Target4
6Off Target3
3Blocked1
13Inside Box6
0Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
351Total Passes419
247Accurate Passes301
70%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls7
3Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

League #48: Cardiff 0–2 Brighton

Brighton beat Cardiff 2-0 in League #48 on August 24, 2021.

Goals: J. Moder (9'), A. Zeqiri (55').

Brighton controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.