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Cardiff vs Brighton — Premier League 2026

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brighton
Brighton
S. Bamba 90'
C. Paterson 28'
L. Dunk 6'
11/10/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cardiff32%
×Draw25%
Brighton43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.31
Brighton
1.54

Brighton creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 146 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.11
Brighton
1.08

allows per match

Cardiff
2.00
Brighton
1.51

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Brighton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Brighton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
57%
Cardiff or Brighton
75%
Draw or Brighton
68%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
14%
Brighton wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
73%
Cardiff 2+ goals
38%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%
Brighton 1+ goals
79%
Brighton 2+ goals
45%
Brighton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
43%
Brighton (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.11 + Brighton defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Brighton attack 1.08 + Cardiff defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cardiff scores more
32%
level
25%
Brighton scores more
43%

Brighton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Dunk↳ S. March
28'
C. Paterson
34'
Dale Stephens
35'
Callum Paterson
39'
Y. Bissouma← S. March
63'
F. Andone← G. Murray
70'
L. Peltier← S. Morrison
71'
Greg Cunningham
72'
J. Hoilett← Josh Murphy
76'
B. Reid← J. Ralls
90'
Yves Bissouma
90'
S. Bamba

Possession

60%Cardiff

Shots

20Cardiff

Pass accuracy

55%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffBrighton
Overview
60%Possession40%
20Total Shots7
4Corners1
7Fouls21
Shots
20Total Shots7
6On Target3
9Off Target2
5Blocked2
9Inside Box4
11Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
472Total Passes315
362Accurate Passes202
77%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls21
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1

Premier League: Cardiff 2–1 Brighton

Cardiff beat Brighton 2-1 in Premier League on November 10, 2018.

Goals: L. Dunk (6'), C. Paterson (28'), S. Bamba (90').

Cardiff controlled possession (60%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.