Brighton 0–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

S. Morrison 50'

N. Mendez-Laing 22'

4/16/2019

Premier League · Round 31American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brighton49%

×Draw26%

Cardiff25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.97

Brighton

1.48

Cardiff

0.97

Brighton creates 53% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

0.68

1.25

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Brighton

1.33

Cardiff

0.68

allows per match

Brighton

1.25

Cardiff

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

75%

Brighton or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

51%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

25%

Cardiff wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

77%

Brighton 2+ goals

43%

Brighton 3+ goals

19%

Cardiff 1+ goals

62%

Cardiff 2+ goals

25%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

66%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.33 + Cardiff defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cardiff attack 0.68 + Brighton defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brighton scores more

49%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

25%

Brighton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. Morrison

Cardiff · D

8.7

Match Events

22'

N. Mendez-Laing↳ J. Hoilett

50'

S. Morrison↳ Víctor Camarasa

54'

F. Andone← P. Groß

55'

L. Bacuna← A. Gunnarsson

69'

J. Izquierdo← A. Jahanbakhsh

79'

Joe Bennett

80'

K. Harris← N. Mendez-Laing

85'

K. Zohorè← O. Niasse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonCardiff

Overview

63%Possession37%

14Total Shots10

5Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target3

8Off Target3

4Blocked4

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

520Total Passes302

403Accurate Passes185

78%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0