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Cardiff vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
15:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
2/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Cardiff City Stadium
37%
Cardiff
model favours
37%29%34%

Cardiff and Blackburn have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cardiff37%
×Draw29%
Blackburn34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.13
Blackburn
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.00
Blackburn
0.93

allows per match

Cardiff
1.23
Blackburn
1.25

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
66%
Cardiff or Blackburn
71%
Draw or Blackburn
63%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
15%
Blackburn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
31%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
Blackburn 1+ goals
66%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
52%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.00 + Blackburn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Blackburn attack 0.93 + Cardiff defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more
37%
level
29%
Blackburn scores more
34%

Cardiff at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face Blackburn (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting Blackburn. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host Blackburn at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.