Cardiff 1–3 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

D. Turnbull 73'

L. Baker 86'

A. Weimann 54', 15'

11/9/2024

Championship · Round 15Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cardiff32%

×Draw27%

Blackburn41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.32

Cardiff

1.15

Blackburn

1.32

Blackburn creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.16

creates per match

1.38

1.27

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Cardiff

1.16

Blackburn

1.38

allows per match

Cardiff

1.27

Blackburn

1.15

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.52scores less

Blackburn-0.21scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

59%

Cardiff or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

68%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

13%

Blackburn wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

68%

Cardiff 2+ goals

32%

Cardiff 3+ goals

11%

Blackburn 1+ goals

73%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

44%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.16 + Blackburn defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Blackburn attack 1.38 + Cardiff defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cardiff scores more

32%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

41%

Blackburn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Pears

Blackburn · G

8.6

Match Events

15'

A. Weimann↳ L. Travis

37'

Aynsley Pears

46'

Y. Meïté← A. El Ghazi

54'

A. Weimann↳ H. Pickering

61'

J. Rankin-Costello← A. Weimann

72'

Joe Rankin-Costello

73'

David TurnbullMissed penalty

73'

D. Turnbull

78'

L. Baker← R. Hedges

78'

J. Buckley← T. Cantwell

78'

M. Gueye← Y. Ohashi

86'

L. Baker↳ J. Rankin-Costello

90+4'

John Buckley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffBlackburn

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots10

1.60Expected Goals (xG)2.27

12Corners1

11Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots10

8On Target7

5Off Target1

7Blocked2

12Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

549Total Passes348

493Accurate Passes283

90%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

1.65Goals Prevented1.65

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Blackburn

Blackburn beat Cardiff 3-1 in Championship on November 9, 2024.

Goals: A. Weimann (15', 54'), D. Turnbull (73'), L. Baker (86').

Cardiff controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Blackburn