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Blackburn vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
J. Rankin-Costello 53'
10/21/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackburn45%
×Draw31%
Cardiff24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.15
Cardiff
0.75

Blackburn creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.35
Cardiff
0.65

allows per match

Blackburn
0.85
Cardiff
0.94

finishing

Blackburn-0.35scores less
Cardiff+0.28scores more

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
76%
Blackburn or Cardiff
69%
Draw or Cardiff
55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
19%
Cardiff wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
68%
Blackburn 2+ goals
32%
Blackburn 3+ goals
11%
Cardiff 1+ goals
53%
Cardiff 2+ goals
17%
Cardiff 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
65%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 8 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.65, concedes 0.94 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.35 + Cardiff defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cardiff attack 0.65 + Blackburn defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more
45%
level
31%
Cardiff scores more
24%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. HillBlackburnBlackburn · D
7.5

Match Events

33'
Tyrhys Dolan
53'
J. Rankin-Costello↳ T. Dolan
61'
O. Tanner← J. Bowler
61'
Y. Meïté← I. Ugbo
65'
N. Ennis← A. Sigurðsson
66'
C. Robinson← R. Wintle
68'
Jamilu Collins
78'
L. Travis← J. Rankin-Costello
78'
R. Colwill← J. Ralls
87'
Dominic Hyam

Possession

62%Blackburn

Shots

9Blackburn

Pass accuracy

54%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnCardiff
Overview
62%Possession38%
9Total Shots11
0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.56
4Corners6
8Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots11
1On Target2
8Off Target4
0Blocked5
7Inside Box5
2Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
599Total Passes364
507Accurate Passes267
85%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Cardiff

Blackburn beat Cardiff 1-0 in Championship on October 21, 2023.

Goals: J. Rankin-Costello (53').

Blackburn controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.