Blackburn 1–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cardiff

Y. Ohashi 16'

Y. Meïté 73'

Y. Salech 4'

3/15/2025

Championship · Round 38Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Blackburn46%

×Draw30%

Cardiff24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.80

Blackburn

1.22

Cardiff

0.80

Blackburn creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.48

creates per match

0.63

0.98

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Blackburn

1.48

Cardiff

0.63

allows per match

Blackburn

0.98

Cardiff

0.96

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.65scores less

Cardiff+0.48scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

76%

Blackburn or Cardiff

70%

Draw or Cardiff

54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Cardiff wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

34%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Cardiff 1+ goals

55%

Cardiff 2+ goals

19%

Cardiff 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

65%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.48 + Cardiff defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cardiff attack 0.63 + Blackburn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more

46%

level

30%

Cardiff scores more

24%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Y. Salech

Cardiff · F

7.5

Match Events

4'

Y. Salech↳ S. Mannsverk

13'

16'

37'

61'

61'

W. Alves← A. Rinomhota

63'

A. Cozier-Duberry← E. Dennis

72'

Y. Meïté← C. Robinson

72'

D. Turnbull← S. Mannsverk

73'

Y. Meïté↳ W. Alves

81'

T. Cantwell← S. Tronstad

81'

C. Woodrow← Y. Ohashi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnCardiff

Overview

65%Possession35%

8Total Shots10

0.48Expected Goals (xG)0.74

3Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked1

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

575Total Passes323

486Accurate Passes189

85%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

14Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2