Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CAI vs Belgrano Santa Rosa — Torneo Federal A 2018

CAI
CAI
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Belgrano Santa Rosa
Belgrano Santa Rosa
M. Villegas 67', 31'
M. Blanco 24'
8/24/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CAI57%
×Draw26%
Belgrano Santa Rosa17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAI
1.50
Belgrano Santa Rosa
0.69

CAI creates 117% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

creates per match

CAI
1.50
Belgrano Santa Rosa
0.58

allows per match

CAI
0.79
Belgrano Santa Rosa
1.50

finishing

CAI+0.00on par
Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CAI or draw
83%
CAI or Belgrano Santa Rosa
74%
Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa
43%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+
30%
Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals
78%
CAI 2+ goals
44%
CAI 3+ goals
19%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals
50%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals
15%
Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)
77%
Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.50 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.58 + CAI defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CAI scores more
57%
level
26%
Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more
17%

CAI at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
M. Blanco
31'
M. Villegas
67'
M. Villegas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAI vs Belgrano Santa Rosa

CAI beat Belgrano Santa Rosa 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 24, 2014.

Goals: M. Blanco (24'), M. Villegas (31', 67').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia in Comodoro Rivadavia, Provincia del Chubut.