Belgrano Santa Rosa 0–0 CAI: Result & Stats

Belgrano Santa Rosa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CAI

5/27/2015

Torneo Federal A · Round 10Estadio Nuevo Rancho Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa45%

×Draw26%

CAI29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano Santa RosaExpected goals in this matchCAI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.11

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.45

CAI

1.11

Belgrano Santa Rosa creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

1.27

creates per match

1.23

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.27

CAI

1.23

allows per match

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.00

CAI

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Santa Rosa ↓

CAI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Belgrano Santa Rosa or draw

71%

Belgrano Santa Rosa or CAI

74%

Draw or CAI

55%

Winning margin

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

22%

CAI wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

77%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

42%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

18%

CAI 1+ goals

67%

CAI 2+ goals

30%

CAI 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

61%

CAI (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Santa Rosa at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 1.27 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

CAI attack 1.23 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

45%

level

26%

CAI scores more

29%

Belgrano Santa Rosa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Belgrano Santa Rosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'

K. Genaro← J. Romero

76'

E. Cocco← M. Priotti

76'

A. Figueroa← M. Vargas

82'

C. Baldissoni← W. Benvenuto

90'

J. Molina← S. Nuñez

Belgrano

CAI

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

74'▲K. Genaro←▼J. Romero

76'▲E. Cocco←▼M. Priotti

82'▲C. Baldissoni←▼W. Benvenuto

Belgrano Santa Rosa substitutes

GenaroCoccoBaldissoni

76'▲A. Figueroa←▼M. Vargas

90'▲J. Molina←▼S. Nuñez

CAI substitutes

FigueroaMolina