CAI 1–2 Belgrano Santa Rosa: Result & Stats

CAI

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Belgrano Santa Rosa

3/22/2015

Torneo Federal A · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

CAI58%

×Draw25%

Belgrano Santa Rosa18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAIExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Santa Rosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.76

CAI

1.61

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.76

CAI creates 112% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

1.50

creates per match

0.72

0.79

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

CAI

1.50

Belgrano Santa Rosa

0.72

allows per match

CAI

0.79

Belgrano Santa Rosa

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAI+0.00on par

Belgrano Santa Rosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Belgrano Santa Rosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CAI or draw

82%

CAI or Belgrano Santa Rosa

75%

Draw or Belgrano Santa Rosa

42%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+

31%

Belgrano Santa Rosa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals

80%

CAI 2+ goals

48%

CAI 3+ goals

22%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 1+ goals

53%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 2+ goals

18%

Belgrano Santa Rosa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)

77%

Belgrano Santa Rosa (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Belgrano Santa Rosa away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.50 + Belgrano Santa Rosa defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Belgrano Santa Rosa attack 0.72 + CAI defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CAI scores more

58%

level

25%

Belgrano Santa Rosa scores more

18%

CAI at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.