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Cagliari vs Empoli — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
Diego Farias 90+1'
L. Pavoletti 36'
M. Zajc 81'
G. Di Lorenzo 70'
1/20/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 20Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cagliari42%
×Draw26%
Empoli32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.41
Empoli
1.21

Cagliari creates 17% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 62 away

creates per match

Cagliari
1.27
Empoli
0.94

allows per match

Cagliari
1.48
Empoli
1.55

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
68%
Cagliari or Empoli
74%
Draw or Empoli
58%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
20%
Empoli wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
76%
Cagliari 2+ goals
41%
Cagliari 3+ goals
17%
Empoli 1+ goals
70%
Empoli 2+ goals
34%
Empoli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
56%
Empoli (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 120 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.27 + Empoli defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Empoli attack 0.94 + Cagliari defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cagliari scores more
42%
level
26%
Empoli scores more
32%

Cagliari at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. ZajcEmpoliEmpoli · M
8.0

Match Events

36'
L. Pavoletti↳ A. Ioniţă
57'
S. Uçan← M. Brighi
66'
Alejandro Rodriguez← A. Acquah
68'
P. Faragò← V. Birsa
70'
G. Di Lorenzo↳ M. Pasqual
74'
Diego Farias← João Pedro
78'
F. Bradarić← L. Cigarini
81'
M. Zajc↳ F. Caputo
90+1'
Diego Farias

Possession

56%Cagliari

Shots

14Cagliari

Pass accuracy

53%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariEmpoli
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots12
4Corners7
13Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots12
3On Target4
9Off Target6
2Blocked2
9Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
523Total Passes404
436Accurate Passes304
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
0Red Cards0
7Offsides1

Serie A: Cagliari 2–2 Empoli

Cagliari and Empoli drew 2-2 in Serie A on January 20, 2019.

Goals: L. Pavoletti (36'), G. Di Lorenzo (70'), M. Zajc (81'), Diego Farias (90+1').

Cagliari controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.