Cadiz 2–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Albacete

I. Tabatadze 90'

B. Ocampo 45'

A. Puertas 59'

8/31/2025

Segunda División · Round 3JP Financial Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz31%

×Draw26%

Albacete43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.44

Cadiz

1.19

Albacete

1.44

Albacete creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.65

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cadiz

1.00

Albacete

1.65

allows per match

Cadiz

1.24

Albacete

1.39

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Cadiz-0.40scores less

Albacete-0.85scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

57%

Cadiz or Albacete

74%

Draw or Albacete

69%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

13%

Albacete wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

70%

Cadiz 2+ goals

33%

Cadiz 3+ goals

12%

Albacete 1+ goals

76%

Albacete 2+ goals

42%

Albacete 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

42%

Albacete (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 5 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.00 + Albacete defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Albacete attack 1.65 + Cadiz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cadiz scores more

31%

level

26%

Albacete scores more

43%

Albacete at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Ocampo

Cadiz · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

Agus MedinaGoal cancelled

17'

Jefté Betancor

18'

Antonio Puertas

44'

Jose Antonio de la Rosa

45+1'

A. Fernandez← J. de la Rosa

45'

B. Ocampo↳ Suso

46'

D. Escriche← Jogo

46'

V. Valverde← J. Betancor

59'

A. Puertas

65'

R. Marti← B. Ocampo

65'

A. Caicedo← Suso

69'

76'

78'

84'

86'

I. Tabatadze← A. Pascual

86'

I. Obeng← I. Carcelen

87'

Iker Recio

90+5'

Higinio Marín

90'

D. Bernabeu← F. Gamez

90'

J. Lazo← J. Morcillo

90'

I. Tabatadze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizAlbacete

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots12

7Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots12

2On Target4

1Off Target6

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

399Total Passes356

314Accurate Passes289

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3