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Albacete vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cadiz
Cadiz
Pepe 60'
1/18/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete45%
×Draw26%
Cadiz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.45
Cadiz
1.10

Albacete creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.31
Cadiz
0.85

allows per match

Albacete
1.36
Cadiz
1.58

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less
Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
71%
Albacete or Cadiz
74%
Draw or Cadiz
55%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
22%
Cadiz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
77%
Albacete 2+ goals
42%
Albacete 3+ goals
18%
Cadiz 1+ goals
67%
Cadiz 2+ goals
30%
Cadiz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
61%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Albacete scores more
45%
level
26%
Cadiz scores more
29%

Albacete at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
PepeAlbaceteAlbacete · D
8.9

Match Events

29'
Jefté Betancor
46'
S. Obeng← J. Betancor
60'
Pepe↳ Agus Medina
61'
I. Tabatadze← J. de la Rosa
61'
A. Cordero← B. Ocampo
66'
Iuri Tabatadze
70'
R. Marti← D. Camara
70'
J. Ontiveros←
71'
Lorenzo← F. Gamez
71'
J. Lazo← V. Valverde
78'
Lorenzo Aguado
79'
A. Fernandez← J. Gonzalez
85'
J. Villar← Agus Medina
89'
Capi← A. Pacheco

Possession

47%Albacete

Shots

14Albacete

Pass accuracy

49%Albacete

Statistics

AlbaceteCadiz
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots9
1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.07
6Corners6
2Fouls6
Shots
14Total Shots9
2On Target3
5Off Target3
7Blocked3
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
368Total Passes412
282Accurate Passes332
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
2Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Albacete vs Cadiz

Albacete beat Cadiz 1-0 in Segunda División on January 18, 2026.

Goals: Pepe (60').

Cadiz controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.