Albacete 3–0 Cadiz: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cadiz

Juanma García 89'

Pablo Sáenz 74'

Javi Martón 66'

3/2/2025

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete45%

×Draw26%

Cadiz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Albacete

1.45

Cadiz

1.10

Albacete creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.31

creates per match

0.85

1.36

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

Cadiz

0.85

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

Cadiz

1.58

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

71%

Albacete or Cadiz

74%

Draw or Cadiz

55%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

22%

Cadiz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

77%

Albacete 2+ goals

42%

Albacete 3+ goals

18%

Cadiz 1+ goals

67%

Cadiz 2+ goals

30%

Cadiz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

61%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Albacete scores more

45%

level

26%

Cadiz scores more

29%

Albacete at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Jon Morcillo

Albacete · F

8.0

Match Events

28'

Riki Rodríguez

44'

Mario Climent

46'

Rubén Sobrino← Carlos Fernández

46'

José Matos← Mario Climent

55'

Álvaro Rodríguez← Jaume Costa

55'

Rubén Alcaraz← Álex Fernández

60'

B. Ocampo← José de la Rosa

65'

Pablo Sáenz← José Carlos Lazo

65'

Javi Martón← C. Kofane

65'

Jon Morcillo← Fidel

66'

Javi Martón↳ Jon Morcillo

74'

Pablo Sáenz↳ Jon Morcillo

80'

Óscar Melendo← Javi Ontiveros

82'

Fali

85'

Javi Villar← Antonio Pacheco

87'

Brian Ocampo

87'

Iza Carcelén

89'

Juanma García↳ Lalo Aguilar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteCadiz

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots5

4Corners2

6Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked0

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

372Total Passes374

305Accurate Passes313

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

6Offsides1

Segunda División: Albacete 3–0 Cadiz

Albacete beat Cadiz 3-0 in Segunda División on March 2, 2025.

Goals: Javi Martón (66'), Pablo Sáenz (74'), Juanma García (89').

Albacete controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Albacete 3–0 Cadiz