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Burton Albion vs Reading — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
15:00
Reading
Reading
12/12/2026League OneLeague One · Round 19Pirelli Stadium
Big match
44%
Burton Albion
model favours
44%25%31%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion44%
×Draw25%
Reading31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.52
Reading
1.22

Burton Albion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Reading
1.49

allows per match

Burton Albion
0.95
Reading
1.76

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par
Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
69%
Burton Albion or Reading
75%
Draw or Reading
56%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
22%
Reading wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
78%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
45%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
20%
Reading 1+ goals
70%
Reading 2+ goals
34%
Reading 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
59%
Reading (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reading attack 1.49 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burton Albion scores more
44%
level
25%
Reading scores more
31%

Burton Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
Reading
Balanced
43%Possession51%
64%Pass accuracy75%
10.1ShotsBiggest gap12.0
1.31xG1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionReading

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Burton Albion
1
Draws
3
Reading
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 67%
1–20–23–21–33–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
LLDDD
Reading
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Reading — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Reading on December 12, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Reading at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.