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Burton Albion vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
3/20/2021League OneLeague One · Round 37Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Burton Albion38%
×Draw26%
Milton Keynes Dons36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.34
Milton Keynes Dons
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 178 home / 95 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
64%
Burton Albion or Milton Keynes Dons
74%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
62%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
74%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
39%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
72%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
37%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
52%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burton Albion scores more
38%
level
26%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
36%

Burton Albion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burton Albion vs Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons beat Burton Albion 2-1 in League One on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.