Burnley 2–1 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wolves

C. Wood 51'

A. Barnes 35'

Fábio Silva 89' (pen)

12/21/2020

Premier League · Round 14Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley38%

×Draw26%

Wolves37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.34

Burnley

1.36

Wolves

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

1.87

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Wolves

1.72

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

63%

Burnley or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

62%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

17%

Wolves wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

39%

Burnley 3+ goals

16%

Wolves 1+ goals

74%

Wolves 2+ goals

39%

Wolves 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

51%

Wolves (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Wolves attack 0.82 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burnley scores more

38%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

37%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Barnes

Burnley · F

7.6

Match Events

35'

36'

45'

51'

52'

Chris WoodGoal cancelled

60'

Fábio Silva← O. Otasowie

60'

Adama Traoré← R. Aït Nouri

69'

E. Pieters← R. Brady

76'

Vitinha← Rúben Neves

82'

J. Rodriguez← A. Barnes

87'

J. Benson← D. McNeil

89'

Fábio SilvaPenalty

90'

Jay Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWolves

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots15

1Corners7

11Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target3

5Off Target5

1Blocked7

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

260Total Passes463

172Accurate Passes384

66%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2