Burnley 1–0 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham

B. Mee 71'

2/23/2022

Premier League · Round 13Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley30%

×Draw26%

Tottenham44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.50

Burnley

1.19

Tottenham

1.50

Tottenham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

0.96

creates per match

1.06

1.94

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Tottenham

1.06

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Tottenham

1.42

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Tottenham+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

56%

Burnley or Tottenham

74%

Draw or Tottenham

70%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

12%

Tottenham wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

70%

Burnley 2+ goals

33%

Burnley 3+ goals

12%

Tottenham 1+ goals

78%

Tottenham 2+ goals

44%

Tottenham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

40%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.42 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Tottenham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tottenham attack 1.06 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burnley scores more

30%

level

26%

Tottenham scores more

44%

Tottenham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

B. Mee

Burnley · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

H. Winks← R. Bentancur

65'

Lucas Moura← Emerson

71'

B. Mee↳ J. Brownhill

79'

S. Bergwijn← R. Sessegnon

85'

Harry WinksPenalty cancelled

89'

A. Barnes← W. Weghorst

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyTottenham

Overview

34%Possession66%

15Total Shots12

3Corners7

8Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target2

6Off Target7

5Blocked3

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

326Total Passes639

259Accurate Passes543

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

3Offsides2