Burnley 2–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham

A. Barnes 83'

C. Wood 57'

H. Kane 65'

2/23/2019

Premier League · Round 27Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley33%

×Draw25%

Tottenham42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.52

Burnley

1.31

Tottenham

1.52

Tottenham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

1.87

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Tottenham

1.62

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Tottenham+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

58%

Burnley or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

14%

Tottenham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

73%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Tottenham 1+ goals

78%

Tottenham 2+ goals

45%

Tottenham 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

44%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

33%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

42%

Tottenham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Tarkowski

Burnley · D

7.7

Match Events

57'

C. Wood↳ D. McNeil

62'

Llorente← H. Winks

65'

Fernando Llorente

65'

H. Kane↳ D. Rose

69'

Juan Foyth

72'

Phil Bardsley

76'

E. Lamela← J. Foyth

80'

J. Guðmundsson← D. McNeil

80'

R. Brady← J. Hendrick

83'

A. Barnes↳ J. Guðmundsson

86'

Érik Lamela

88'

Lucas Moura← Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyTottenham

Overview

30%Possession70%

10Total Shots17

7Corners6

9Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots17

4On Target6

3Off Target5

3Blocked6

8Inside Box7

2Outside Box10

Passing

30%Possession70%

214Total Passes504

133Accurate Passes400

62%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0