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Burnley vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tottenham
Tottenham
Heung-Min Son 77'
E. Dier 66'
4/1/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley33%
×Draw25%
Tottenham42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.31
Tottenham
1.52

Tottenham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.00
Tottenham
1.17

allows per match

Burnley
1.87
Tottenham
1.62

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more
Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
58%
Burnley or Tottenham
75%
Draw or Tottenham
67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
14%
Tottenham wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
73%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
14%
Tottenham 1+ goals
78%
Tottenham 2+ goals
45%
Tottenham 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
44%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more
33%
level
25%
Tottenham scores more
42%

Tottenham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
E. DierTottenhamTottenham · D
8.3

Match Events

44'
M. Dembélé← V. Wanyama
45+2'
M. Sissoko← H. Winks
47'
Michael Keane
56'
S. Vokes← A. Gray
66'
E. Dier
73'
Heung-Min Son← V. Janssen
74'
R. Brady← G. Boyd
77'
Heung-Min Son↳ D. Alli
78'
S. Defour← S. Arfield
79'
Ashley Barnes

Possession

39%Burnley

Shots

13Burnley

Pass accuracy

46%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyTottenham
Overview
39%Possession61%
13Total Shots19
3Corners7
9Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots19
2On Target7
6Off Target6
5Blocked6
5Inside Box10
8Outside Box9
Passing
39%Possession61%
361Total Passes573
248Accurate Passes467
69%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Burnley vs Tottenham

Tottenham beat Burnley 2-0 in Premier League on April 1, 2017.

Goals: E. Dier (66'), Heung-Min Son (77').

Tottenham controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.