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Burnley vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
15:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
12/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Turf Moor
Big match
62%
Burnley
model favours
62%24%14%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Burnley62%
×Draw24%
Stoke City14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.62
Stoke City
0.61

Burnley creates 166% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.92
Stoke City
0.75

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
Stoke City
1.32

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
86%
Burnley or Stoke City
76%
Draw or Stoke City
38%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
34%
Stoke City wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
80%
Burnley 2+ goals
48%
Burnley 3+ goals
22%
Stoke City 1+ goals
46%
Stoke City 2+ goals
13%
Stoke City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
82%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.92 + Stoke City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stoke City attack 0.75 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Burnley scores more
62%
level
24%
Stoke City scores more
14%

Burnley at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
City
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host Stoke City

December 19, 2026: Burnley take on Stoke City in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host Stoke City at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.