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Burnley vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
10/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Burnley51%
×Draw26%
Norwich23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.54
Norwich
0.93

Burnley creates 66% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 57 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.04
Norwich
0.54

allows per match

Burnley
1.32
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
77%
Burnley or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
49%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
27%
Norwich wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
79%
Burnley 2+ goals
45%
Burnley 3+ goals
20%
Norwich 1+ goals
61%
Norwich 2+ goals
24%
Norwich 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
69%
Norwich (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.54

Norwich attack 0.54 + Burnley defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Burnley scores more
51%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
23%

Burnley at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. KrulNorwichNorwich · G
8.2

Match Events

11'
James Tarkowski
25'
Matthew Lowton
25'
Chris Wood
27'
Mathias Normann
33'
Josh Brownhill
34'
J. Rodriguez← M. Vydra
49'
Jay Rodriguez
60'
J. Guðmunds­son← A. Lennon
74'
Max Aarons
80'
A. Barnes← C. Wood
80'
M. Rashica← T. Pukki
80'
L. Rupp← P. Lees Melou
90'
A. Idah← J. Sargent

Possession

56%Burnley

Shots

14Burnley

Pass accuracy

51%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyNorwich
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots10
9Corners5
13Fouls3
Shots
14Total Shots10
4On Target2
3Off Target2
7Blocked6
10Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
432Total Passes356
331Accurate Passes260
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls3
5Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Burnley vs Norwich

Burnley and Norwich drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 2, 2021.

Burnley controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.