Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burnley vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
C. Wood 14', 10'
9/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Burnley51%
×Draw26%
Norwich23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.54
Norwich
0.94

Burnley creates 64% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 54 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.04
Norwich
0.56

allows per match

Burnley
1.31
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
77%
Burnley or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
49%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
26%
Norwich wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
79%
Burnley 2+ goals
45%
Burnley 3+ goals
20%
Norwich 1+ goals
61%
Norwich 2+ goals
24%
Norwich 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
69%
Norwich (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 157 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.54

Norwich attack 0.56 + Burnley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Burnley scores more
51%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
23%

Burnley at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
C. WoodBurnleyBurnley · F
8.3

Match Events

10'
C. Wood↳ A. Westwood
13'
M. Leitner← A. Tettey
14'
C. Wood↳ D. McNeil
33'
Ibrahim Amadou
75'
J. Drmic← M. Stiepermann
79'
J. Rodriguez← A. Barnes
79'
A. Lennon← D. McNeil
90+2'
R. Brady← J. Hendrick
90'
P. Roberts← T. Cantwell

Possession

41%Burnley

Shots

13Burnley

Pass accuracy

48%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyNorwich
Overview
41%Possession59%
13Total Shots11
7Corners3
11Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots11
6On Target2
2Off Target6
5Blocked3
8Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
357Total Passes528
272Accurate Passes437
76%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Burnley vs Norwich

Burnley beat Norwich 2-0 in Premier League on September 21, 2019.

Goals: C. Wood (10', 14').

Norwich controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.