Burgos 0–1 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zaragoza

Álvaro Giménez 83'

11/4/2021

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Burgos45%

×Draw29%

Zaragoza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Burgos

1.27

Zaragoza

0.89

Burgos creates 43% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 172 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

0.76

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Burgos

1.26

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Burgos

0.76

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

74%

Burgos or Zaragoza

71%

Draw or Zaragoza

55%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

21%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

72%

Burgos 2+ goals

36%

Burgos 3+ goals

14%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

59%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

22%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

63%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burgos scores more

45%

level

29%

Zaragoza scores more

26%

Burgos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Álvarez

Zaragoza · G

7.7

Match Events

5'

Michel Zabaco

63'

Álex Alegría← Claudio Medina

66'

Lluís López

71'

Álvaro Giménez← Ivan Azón

71'

Borja Sainz← Alberto Zapater

76'

Andy← Unai Elgezabal

76'

José Matos← Fran García

79'

Adrián← Nano

83'

Álvaro Giménez

83'

Álvaro Giménez↳ Íñigo Eguaras

84'

Saúl Berjón← Míchel Zabaco

84'

Álvaro Rodríguez← Raúl Navarro

86'

Fran Gámez← Sergio Bermejo

90+4'

Miguel Muñoz Mora

90+2'

Fran Gámez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurgosZaragoza

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots9

6Corners1

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target1

3Off Target4

4Blocked4

5Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

425Total Passes419

325Accurate Passes323

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3