Burgos 4–2 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Alcorcon

Álex Sancris 70'

Unai Elgezabal 61'

Fer Niño 56'

Dani Ojeda 53'

E. Addai 19'

Javi Lara 8'

11/12/2023

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Burgos48%

×Draw29%

Alcorcon24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.82

Burgos

1.30

Alcorcon

0.82

Burgos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

1.26

creates per match

0.89

0.76

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Burgos

1.26

Alcorcon

0.89

allows per match

Burgos

0.76

Alcorcon

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

76%

Burgos or Alcorcon

71%

Draw or Alcorcon

52%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

22%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

73%

Burgos 2+ goals

37%

Burgos 3+ goals

14%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

56%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

20%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

67%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Alcorcon defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alcorcon attack 0.89 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burgos scores more

48%

level

29%

Alcorcon scores more

24%

Burgos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

José Matos

Burgos · D

8.7

Match Events

8'

Javi Lara↳ Jacobo González

19'

E. Addai↳ Iago López

53'

Dani Ojeda↳ Álex Sancris

56'

Fer Niño↳ José Matos

61'

Unai Elgezabal↳ José Matos

65'

Dyego Sousa← Chiki

65'

Pedro Mosquera← Y. Eteki

67'

Miguel Atienza← Miki Muñoz

70'

Álex Sancris↳ Fer Niño

73'

Álex Bermejo← Fer Niño

73'

Edu Espiau← Álex Sancris

77'

Álex López← Javi Lara

78'

Juan Artola← Óscar Rivas

85'

Andy Rodríguez← Dani Ojeda

85'

Koldo Obieta← Jacobo González

86'

K. Appin← Unai Elgezabal

90+9'

Borja Gonzalez Tejada

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurgosAlcorcon

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots9

5Corners2

14Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target3

4Off Target1

4Blocked5

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

406Total Passes442

319Accurate Passes355

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0