Burgos 3–1 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Burgos

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Alcorcon

Aitor Córdoba 61'

Pablo Valcarce 28'

Miki Muñoz 25'

Xisco Jiménez 4'

2/4/2022

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Burgos48%

×Draw29%

Alcorcon24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurgosExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.82

Burgos

1.30

Alcorcon

0.82

Burgos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 106 away

1.26

creates per match

0.89

0.76

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Burgos

1.26

Alcorcon

0.89

allows per match

Burgos

0.76

Alcorcon

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burgos or draw

76%

Burgos or Alcorcon

71%

Draw or Alcorcon

52%

Winning margin

Burgos wins by 2+

22%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Burgos 1+ goals

73%

Burgos 2+ goals

37%

Burgos 3+ goals

14%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

56%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

20%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Burgos (draw refunded)

67%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.76 · 105 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos attack 1.26 + Alcorcon defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alcorcon attack 0.89 + Burgos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burgos scores more

48%

level

29%

Alcorcon scores more

24%

Burgos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Juanma García

Burgos · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

Xisco Jiménez

19'

Giovanni Zarfino

25'

Miki Muñoz↳ Juanma García

28'

Pablo Valcarce↳ Juanma García

34'

José Carlos← Carlos Hernández

34'

Borja Valle← G. Zarfino

45'

Nicolás Gorosito

46'

Álex Mula← E. Apeh

51'

Borja Valle

52'

Aitor Cordoba Querejeta

55'

Roberto Olabe← Luis Valcarce

61'

Aitor Córdoba↳ Andy

72'

Unai Elgezabal← Andy

72'

Saúl Berjón← Guillermo Fernández

81'

F. Malbašić← Juanma García

85'

Álvaro Rodríguez← Ernesto Gómez

86'

Álex Alegría← Pablo Valcarce

87'

Óscar← José Jurado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurgosAlcorcon

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots11

7Corners2

14Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target1

8Off Target6

3Blocked4

6Inside Box3

11Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

439Total Passes393

352Accurate Passes301

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Segunda División: Burgos 3–1 Alcorcon

Burgos beat Alcorcon 3-1 in Segunda División on February 4, 2022.

Goals: Xisco Jiménez (4'), Miki Muñoz (25'), Pablo Valcarce (28'), Aitor Córdoba (61').

Burgos controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.

Burgos vs Alcorcon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Burgos 3–1 Alcorcon