Alcorcon 1–1 Burgos: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burgos

Dyego Sousa 53'

Álex Sancris 74'

6/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 42Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Alcorcon38%

×Draw31%

Burgos31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.94

Alcorcon

1.08

Burgos

0.94

Alcorcon creates 15% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 105 away

0.92

creates per match

0.79

1.08

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Alcorcon

0.92

Burgos

0.79

allows per match

Alcorcon

1.08

Burgos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

69%

Alcorcon or Burgos

69%

Draw or Burgos

62%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

15%

Burgos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

66%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

29%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

10%

Burgos 1+ goals

61%

Burgos 2+ goals

24%

Burgos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

55%

Burgos (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.08 · 106 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.92 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Burgos attack 0.79 + Alcorcon defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcorcon scores more

38%

level

31%

Burgos scores more

31%

Alcorcon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Álex Sancris

Burgos · M

8.3

Match Events

46'

Dyego Sousa← Jacobo González

46'

Iker Bilbao← Víctor García

46'

Unai Elgezabal← Aitor Córdoba

53'

Dyego Sousa↳ Fede Vico

59'

Álex Bermejo← Dani Ojeda

59'

Miki Muñoz← Joni Montiel

59'

Edu Espiau← Fer Niño

71'

Koldo Obieta← Juan Artola

74'

Álex Sancris↳ Curro Sánchez

80'

Israel García← Javi Lara

85'

Lucas Ricoy← Álex Sancris

88'

Jaime Garrido← Fede Vico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlcorconBurgos

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots20

2Corners5

11Fouls3

Shots

12Total Shots20

5On Target9

6Off Target7

1Blocked4

9Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

41%Possession59%

396Total Passes591

317Accurate Passes518

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls3

3Offsides0