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Brondby vs AC Horsens — Superliga 2018

Brondby
Brondby
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AC Horsens
AC Horsens
S. Hedlund 45+1'
J. Lindstrøm 5'
M. Lumb 90+1'
9/27/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 3Brøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Brondby53%
×Draw24%
AC Horsens23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brondby
1.71
AC Horsens
1.05

Brondby creates 63% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 65 away

creates per match

Brondby
1.69
AC Horsens
0.85

allows per match

Brondby
1.25
AC Horsens
1.74

finishing

Brondby+0.00on par
AC Horsens+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

AC Horsens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brondby or draw
77%
Brondby or AC Horsens
76%
Draw or AC Horsens
47%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+
29%
AC Horsens wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals
82%
Brondby 2+ goals
51%
Brondby 3+ goals
24%
AC Horsens 1+ goals
65%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
28%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)
69%
AC Horsens (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

AC Horsens away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.74 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 1.69 + AC Horsens defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

AC Horsens attack 0.85 + Brondby defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brondby scores more
53%
level
24%
AC Horsens scores more
23%

Brondby at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. LindstrømBrondbyBrondby · M
7.9

Match Events

5'
J. Lindstrøm↳ S. Hedlund
45+1'
S. Hedlund↳ J. Lindstrøm
46'
Sigurd Rosted
46'
J. Thorsen← H. Hansson
46'
L. Qamili← N. Brock-Madsen
56'
T. Lange← C. Tengstedt
59'
J. Radošević← M. Frendrup
59'
A. Bruus← P. Bjur
68'
A. Slimane← J. Lindstrøm
76'
R. Frantsen← J. Jacobsen
84'
M. Jensen← J. Pohl
86'
Lirim Qamili
88'
R. Corlu← S. Hedlund
88'
T. Børkeeiet← L. Christensen
90+1'
M. Lumb↳ L. Andreasen

Possession

55%Brondby

Shots

12Brondby

Pass accuracy

51%Brondby

Statistics

BrondbyAC
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots10
5Corners5
12Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots10
4On Target4
5Off Target4
3Blocked2
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
546Total Passes428
439Accurate Passes335
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Superliga: Brondby 2–1 AC Horsens

Brondby beat AC Horsens 2-1 in Superliga on September 27, 2020.

Goals: J. Lindstrøm (5'), S. Hedlund (45+1'), M. Lumb (90+1').

Brondby controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Brøndby Stadion in Brøndby.