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AC Horsens vs Brondby — Superliga 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brondby
Brondby
S. Hedlund 63'
O. Omoijuanfo 52'
9/4/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 8Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens30%
×Draw24%
Brondby45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.28
Brondby
1.61

Brondby creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 130 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.21
Brondby
1.52

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.70
Brondby
1.35

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
Brondby+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Brondby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
55%
AC Horsens or Brondby
76%
Draw or Brondby
70%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
13%
Brondby wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
72%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
37%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
14%
Brondby 1+ goals
80%
Brondby 2+ goals
48%
Brondby 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
40%
Brondby (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

Brondby away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + Brondby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Brondby attack 1.52 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Horsens scores more
30%
level
24%
Brondby scores more
45%

Brondby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. WassBrondbyBrondby · M
8.0

Match Events

24'
Magnus Jensen
52'
O. Omoijuanfo↳ D. Wass
60'
Jonas Gemmer
61'
S. Iyede← J. Gemmer
63'
S. Hedlund
69'
M. Kvistgaarden← O. Omoijuanfo
79'
A. Ben Slimane← N. Vallys
79'
F. Alves← D. Wass
81'
S. Makienok← T. Santos
89'
J. Drachmann← D. Kruse
89'
E. Just← A. Sigurðarson
90'
O. Schwartau← S. Hedlund

Possession

49%AC

Shots

10AC

Pass accuracy

50%AC

Statistics

ACBrondby
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots12
5Corners2
13Fouls4
Shots
10Total Shots12
1On Target7
5Off Target2
4Blocked3
6Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
437Total Passes472
348Accurate Passes377
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls4
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Superliga: AC Horsens 0–2 Brondby

Brondby beat AC Horsens 2-0 in Superliga on September 4, 2022.

Goals: O. Omoijuanfo (52'), S. Hedlund (63').

Brondby controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Nordstern Arena Horsens in Horsens.