AC Horsens 1–2 Brondby: Result & Stats | Superliga

AC Horsens

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brondby

K. Finnbogason 90+2'

J. Lindstrøm 63'

M. Uhre 20' (pen)

12/20/2020

Superliga · Round 13CASA Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens30%

×Draw24%

Brondby45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC HorsensExpected goals in this matchBrondby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.61

AC Horsens

1.28

Brondby

1.61

Brondby creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 130 away

1.21

creates per match

1.52

1.70

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

AC Horsens

1.21

Brondby

1.52

allows per match

AC Horsens

1.70

Brondby

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Brondby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Brondby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw

55%

AC Horsens or Brondby

76%

Draw or Brondby

70%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+

13%

Brondby wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals

72%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

37%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

14%

Brondby 1+ goals

80%

Brondby 2+ goals

48%

Brondby 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

40%

Brondby (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

Brondby away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + Brondby defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Brondby attack 1.52 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Horsens scores more

30%

level

24%

Brondby scores more

45%

Brondby at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Jung

Brondby · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Simon HedlundGoal cancelled

20'

M. UhrePenalty

45'

Malte Kiilerich

54'

Louka Prip

60'

Á. Hlynsson← R. Frantsen

63'

J. Lindstrøm↳ J. Radošević

67'

L. Vigen← S. Hedlund

70'

Jonas Gemmer

75'

J. Gomez← M. Kiilerich

75'

J. Jacobsen← J. Gemmer

81'

M. Jensen← A. Ludwig

81'

M. Brajanac← L. Qamili

83'

A. Slimane← J. Lindstrøm

86'

Lasse Vigen Christensen

87'

H. Hermannsson← A. Bruus

90'

Kjartan Finnbogason

90+2'

K. Finnbogason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACBrondby

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots5

6Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots5

3On Target2

8Off Target1

2Blocked2

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

369Total Passes448

241Accurate Passes323

65%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2