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Bromley vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
M. Cheek 52' (pen), 45' (pen)
D. Abimbola 45'
2/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bromley62%
×Draw22%
Accrington ST17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.94
Accrington ST
0.90

Bromley creates 116% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.33
Accrington ST
0.79

allows per match

Bromley
1.00
Accrington ST
1.55

finishing

Bromley-0.55scores less
Accrington ST-0.23scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
83%
Bromley or Accrington ST
78%
Draw or Accrington ST
38%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
37%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
86%
Bromley 2+ goals
58%
Bromley 3+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
59%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
23%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
78%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.33 + Accrington ST defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Accrington ST attack 0.79 + Bromley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bromley scores more
62%
level
22%
Accrington ST scores more
17%

Bromley at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. CheekBromleyBromley · F
8.0

Match Events

1'
Jude Arthurs
14'
Donald Love
45'
Paddy Madden
45'
M. CheekPenalty
45'
D. Abimbola↳ F. Sass
46'
B. Thompson← C. Jenkinson
46'
I. Odutayo← Z. Medley
52'
M. CheekPenalty
66'
W. Hondermarck← J. Arthurs
77'
C. Hall← S. Conneely
81'
C. Brown← S. Whalley
84'
A. Popoola← D. Abimbola

Possession

63%Bromley

Shots

17Bromley

Pass accuracy

57%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyAccrington
Overview
63%Possession37%
17Total Shots12
3.59Expected Goals (xG)0.45
5Corners5
5Fouls5
Shots
17Total Shots12
7On Target4
6Off Target2
4Blocked6
13Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
321Total Passes196
208Accurate Passes98
65%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls5
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Bromley vs Accrington ST

Bromley beat Accrington ST 2-1 in League Two on February 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Cheek (45' pen, 52' pen), D. Abimbola (45').

Bromley controlled possession (63%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.