Accrington ST 1–2 Bromley: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bromley

B. Woods 9'

I. Odutayo 63'

M. Cheek 7'

12/7/2024

League Two · Round 19Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST44%

×Draw27%

Bromley28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Accrington ST

1.35

Bromley

1.02

Accrington ST creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

0.93

creates per match

1.08

0.95

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.93

Bromley

1.08

allows per match

Accrington ST

0.95

Bromley

1.77

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

Accrington ST+0.57scores more

Bromley+0.55scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

72%

Accrington ST or Bromley

73%

Draw or Bromley

56%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

21%

Bromley wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

74%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

39%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

15%

Bromley 1+ goals

64%

Bromley 2+ goals

27%

Bromley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

61%

Bromley (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.77 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.93 + Bromley defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bromley attack 1.08 + Accrington ST defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Accrington ST scores more

44%

level

27%

Bromley scores more

28%

Accrington ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

I. Odutayo

Bromley · D

7.5

Match Events

7'

M. Cheek↳ C. Congreve

9'

23'

46'

51'

61'

61'

O. Olomola← C. Congreve

63'

I. Odutayo

75'

Benjamin Woods

80'

A. Henderson← S. Whalley

85'

Grant Smith

88'

C. Hall← D. Love

90+2'

Daniel Imray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonBromley

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots6

3Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots6

2On Target3

2Off Target1

2Blocked2

0Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

324Total Passes251

179Accurate Passes124

55%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2