Accrington ST 0–1 Bromley: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bromley

D. Elerewe 89'

12/13/2025

League Two · Round 20The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST40%

×Draw27%

Bromley32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Accrington ST

1.29

Bromley

1.13

Accrington ST creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

0.98

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.98

Bromley

1.19

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.07

Bromley

1.60

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more

Bromley+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

68%

Accrington ST or Bromley

73%

Draw or Bromley

60%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

18%

Bromley wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

37%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

14%

Bromley 1+ goals

68%

Bromley 2+ goals

31%

Bromley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

55%

Bromley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Bromley defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bromley attack 1.19 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more

40%

level

27%

Bromley scores more

32%

Accrington ST at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Elerewe

Bromley · D

8.7

Match Events

45+1'

William Hondermarck

60'

J. Arthurs← W. Hondermarck

60'

B. Ilunga← C. Whitely

65'

Deji Elerewe

69'

N. Kabamba← B. Krauhaus

70'

C. Caton← P. Madden

73'

Seamus Conneely

80'

C. Grant← S. Conneely

89'

D. Elerewe↳ M. Pinnock

90+1'

A. Stepien-Iwumene← M. Cheek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonBromley

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots11

1.38Expected Goals (xG)2.09

7Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots11

1On Target5

7Off Target4

7Blocked2

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

366Total Passes287

196Accurate Passes130

54%Pass Accuracy45%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

League Two: Accrington ST 0–1 Bromley

Bromley beat Accrington ST 1-0 in League Two on December 13, 2025.

Goals: D. Elerewe (89').

Accrington ST controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.

Accrington ST vs Bromley — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Accrington ST 0–1 Bromley