Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town

Bristol Rovers

Preview

15:00

Fleetwood Town

1/30/2027

League Two · Round 28Memorial Stadium

Big match

43%

Bristol Rovers

model favours

43%26%31%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bristol Rovers43%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Bristol Rovers

1.42

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Bristol Rovers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.40

creates per match

1.20

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Fleetwood Town

1.20

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Fleetwood Town-0.03on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

69%

Bristol Rovers or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

57%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

41%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

69%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

33%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

58%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fleetwood Town attack 1.20 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

43%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

31%

Bristol Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Bristol Rovers

Defensively solid

Fleetwood Town

Defensively solid

52%PossessionBiggest gap49%

66%Pass accuracy68%

12.4Shots12.1

1.37xG1.39

Bristol RoversFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Bristol Rovers

5

Draws

3

Fleetwood Town

Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%

1–01–20–00–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Rovers

DDLW

Town

WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff