Bristol Rovers 1–4 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Fleetwood Town

J. Grant 60'

C. Evans 86' (pen)

C. Camps 82', 30'

P. Madden 39'

11/14/2020

League One · Round 12Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Bristol Rovers38%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Bristol Rovers

1.31

Fleetwood Town

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 135 away

1.20

creates per match

1.16

1.34

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Fleetwood Town

1.16

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

65%

Bristol Rovers or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

62%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

73%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

38%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

36%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

52%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

38%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

35%

Bristol Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Camps

Fleetwood Town · M

8.7

Match Events

27'

Cian Harries

30'

C. Camps

39'

P. Madden↳ C. Connolly

43'

Tom Edwards

46'

J. Daly← L. McCormick

46'

S. Nicholson← J. Hare

46'

J. Hill← T. Edwards

60'

J. Grant↳ B. Hanlan

69'

J. Rossiter← S. Finley

69'

70'

75'

79'

82'

86'

C. EvansPenalty

90'

Brandon Hanlan

90'

Jayson Leutwiler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolFleetwood

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots12

4Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target6

2Off Target5

3Blocked1

4Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

294Total Passes345

191Accurate Passes225

65%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Bristol Rovers 4-1 in League One on November 14, 2020.

Goals: C. Camps (30', 82'), P. Madden (39'), J. Grant (60'), C. Evans (86' pen).

Fleetwood Town controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town