Bristol City 0–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

J. Piroe 19'

8/20/2021

Championship · Round 4Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Bristol City42%

×Draw27%

Swansea31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.15

Bristol City

1.39

Swansea

1.15

Bristol City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 55 away

1.29

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Swansea

1.10

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Swansea

1.48

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

69%

Bristol City or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

58%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

20%

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

75%

Bristol City 2+ goals

40%

Bristol City 3+ goals

16%

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

58%

Swansea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Swansea attack 1.10 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol City scores more

42%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

31%

Bristol City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Benda

Swansea · G

8.2

Match Events

17'

19'

35'

36'

47'

57'

58'

60'

67'

71'

71'

M. Whittaker← L. Cullen

76'

Robert Atkinson

81'

J. Lowe← J. Piroe

84'

Antoine Semenyo

86'

A. King← D. Simpson

90'

Matt Grimes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolSwansea

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots8

1Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots8

5On Target4

5Off Target2

5Blocked2

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

385Total Passes471

292Accurate Passes371

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards6

3Offsides4

Championship: Bristol City 0–1 Swansea

Swansea beat Bristol City 1-0 in Championship on August 20, 2021.

Goals: J. Piroe (19').

Swansea controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.

Bristol City vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Bristol City 0–1 Swansea