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Bristol City vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
9/21/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Bristol City42%
×Draw27%
Swansea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.39
Swansea
1.15

Bristol City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.29
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Bristol City
1.19
Swansea
1.48

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
69%
Bristol City or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
58%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
75%
Bristol City 2+ goals
40%
Bristol City 3+ goals
16%
Swansea 1+ goals
68%
Swansea 2+ goals
32%
Swansea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
58%
Swansea (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Swansea attack 1.10 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol City scores more
42%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
31%

Bristol City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. GrimesSwanseaSwansea · M
8.2

Match Events

15'
Taylor Moore
30'
F. Diedhiou← N. Baker
33'
Matt Grimes
54'
K. Palmer← S. Szmodics
59'
N. Eliasson← C. ODowda
72'
S. Surridge← Borja Bastón
90'
Jake Bidwell
90+1'
C. Roberts← G. Byers

Possession

43%Bristol

Shots

11Bristol

Pass accuracy

48%Bristol

Statistics

BristolSwansea
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots15
2Corners7
8Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots15
2On Target2
5Off Target8
4Blocked5
4Inside Box9
7Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
341Total Passes445
241Accurate Passes344
71%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Swansea

Bristol City and Swansea drew 0-0 in Championship on September 21, 2019.

Swansea controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.