Bristol City 1–2 Millwall: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

S. Hutchinson 71' (OG)

Z. Flemming 76'

T. Bradshaw 44'

10/15/2022

Championship · Round 15Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Bristol City40%

×Draw27%

Millwall33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Bristol City

1.31

Millwall

1.17

Bristol City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

1.30

creates per match

1.15

1.19

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bristol City

1.30

Millwall

1.15

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Millwall

1.33

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.14scores more

Millwall-0.08on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

67%

Bristol City or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

60%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

18%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

73%

Bristol City 2+ goals

38%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

69%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

55%

Millwall (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 61 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.33 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.30 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.15 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bristol City scores more

40%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

33%

Bristol City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. O’Leary

Bristol City · G

7.5

Match Events

43'

44'

53'

53'

57'

60'

61'

61'

61'

G. Honeyman← T. Burey

61'

C. Styles← M. Wallace

66'

C. Pring← J. Dasilva

71'

S. HutchinsonOwn goal

76'

Z. Flemming

77'

B. Afobe← T. Bradshaw

87'

G. Evans← Z. Flemming

88'

J. Shackleton← A. Voglsammer

90+2'

Danny McNamara

90+2'

D. Kadji← Z. Vyner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMillwall

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots16

0Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots16

1On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked6

5Inside Box12

4Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

393Total Passes298

275Accurate Passes194

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3