Bristol City 0–2 Derby: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

J. Bogle 77'

T. Lawrence 18'

4/27/2019

Championship · Round 45Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Bristol City41%

×Draw27%

Derby31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Bristol City

1.31

Derby

1.10

Bristol City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

1.29

creates per match

1.01

1.19

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Derby

1.01

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Derby

1.32

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

69%

Bristol City or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

59%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

Derby wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

73%

Bristol City 2+ goals

38%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Derby 1+ goals

67%

Derby 2+ goals

30%

Derby 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

57%

Derby (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 1.01 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol City scores more

41%

level

27%

Derby scores more

31%

Bristol City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

K. Roos

Derby · G

9.5

Match Events

11'

G. Evans← F. Tomori

18'

T. Lawrence↳ M. Mount

21'

29'

33'

59'

63'

68'

M. Bennett← H. Wilson

77'

J. Bogle↳ M. Bennett

79'

K. Palmer← J. Paterson

79'

N. Eliasson← A. Weimann

81'

D. Nugent← M. Waghorn

90'

Mason Bennett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolDerby

Overview

57%Possession43%

23Total Shots8

5Corners2

8Fouls19

Shots

23Total Shots8

11On Target4

5Off Target3

7Blocked1

12Inside Box6

11Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

476Total Passes362

346Accurate Passes236

73%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves11

Discipline

8Fouls19

0Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards–

1Offsides2