Brescia 0–1 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Brescia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AC Milan

Ante Rebić 71'

1/24/2020

Serie A · Round 21Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Brescia25%

×Draw24%

AC Milan51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BresciaExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.73

Brescia

1.13

AC Milan

1.73

AC Milan creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 131 away

1.10

creates per match

1.70

1.75

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Brescia

1.10

AC Milan

1.70

allows per match

Brescia

1.75

AC Milan

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par

AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brescia or draw

49%

Brescia or AC Milan

76%

Draw or AC Milan

75%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+

10%

AC Milan wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals

68%

Brescia 2+ goals

31%

Brescia 3+ goals

11%

AC Milan 1+ goals

82%

AC Milan 2+ goals

52%

AC Milan 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)

33%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.15 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.10 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

AC Milan attack 1.70 + Brescia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brescia scores more

25%

level

24%

AC Milan scores more

51%

AC Milan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Gianluigi Donnarumma

AC Milan · G

8.8

Match Events

2'

21'

36'

44'

58'

Ante Rebić← Rafael Leão

62'

Ismaël Bennacer

70'

Emanuele Ndoj← Daniele Dessena

71'

Ante Rebić

77'

Rade Krunić← Hakan Çalhanoğlu

78'

Alfredo Donnarumma← Florian Aye

88'

Simon Skrabb← Dimitri Bisoli

89'

Simon Skrabb

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BresciaAC

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots18

7Corners3

12Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots18

7On Target4

6Off Target7

5Blocked7

12Inside Box11

6Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

432Total Passes413

349Accurate Passes342

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2