AC Milan 3–0 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Brescia

Z. Ibrahimovic 31'

Robinho 28'

K. Boateng 4'

12/4/2010

Serie A · Round 15Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

AC Milan62%

×Draw22%

Brescia16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.82

AC Milan

1.88

Brescia

0.82

AC Milan creates 129% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 24 away

1.64

creates per match

0.67

0.97

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Brescia

0.67

allows per match

AC Milan

0.97

Brescia

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

84%

AC Milan or Brescia

78%

Draw or Brescia

38%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

37%

Brescia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

85%

AC Milan 2+ goals

56%

AC Milan 3+ goals

29%

Brescia 1+ goals

56%

Brescia 2+ goals

20%

Brescia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

80%

Brescia (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.97 · 138 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Brescia defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

Brescia attack 0.67 + AC Milan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AC Milan scores more

62%

level

22%

Brescia scores more

16%

AC Milan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

K. Boateng↳ Z. Ibrahimovic

28'

Robinho

31'

Z. Ibrahimovic↳ A. Pirlo

46'

M. Yepes← A. Nesta

59'

Eder← P. Kone

64'

M. Flamini← M. Ambrosini

67'

A. Budel← Á. Vass

70'

Ronaldinho← Z. Ibrahimovic

AC

Brescia

22

26

5

6

28

3

8

▼

Vass

33

▼

56

9

32

32

13

▼

19

33

20

8

21

A

Pirlo

27

⚽

Boateng

23

▼

Ambrosini

70

⚽

Robinho

11

⚽A

▼

Ibrahimov

46'▲M. Yepes←▼A. Nesta

64'▲M. Flamini←▼M. Ambrosini

70'▲Ronaldinho←▼Z. Ibrahimovic

AC Milan substitutes

76Yepes16Flamini80Ronaldinho1Amelia25Bonera77Antonini10Seedorf

59'▲Eder←▼P. Kone

67'▲A. Budel←▼Á. Vass

Brescia substitutes

7Eder19Budel1Arcari16Mareco15Zambelli17Baiocco18Possanzini

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Brescia

AC Milan beat Brescia 3-0 in Serie A on December 4, 2010.

Goals: K. Boateng (4'), Robinho (28'), Z. Ibrahimovic (31').

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano).

AC Milan vs Brescia — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Brescia