Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AC Milan vs Brescia — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
Hakan Çalhanoğlu 12'
8/31/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 2Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

AC Milan64%
×Draw21%
Brescia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.98
Brescia
0.85

AC Milan creates 133% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 21 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.63
Brescia
0.71

allows per match

AC Milan
0.99
Brescia
2.33

finishing

AC Milan+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
85%
AC Milan or Brescia
79%
Draw or Brescia
36%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
39%
Brescia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
86%
AC Milan 2+ goals
59%
AC Milan 3+ goals
31%
Brescia 1+ goals
57%
Brescia 2+ goals
21%
Brescia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
81%
Brescia (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.99 · 134 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.63 + Brescia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Brescia attack 0.71 + AC Milan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AC Milan scores more
64%
level
21%
Brescia scores more
15%

AC Milan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
SusoAC MilanAC Milan · M
8.0

Match Events

12'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu↳ Suso
14'
Aleš Matějů← Bruno Martella
24'
Daniele Dessena
30'
Andrea Cistana
34'
André Silva
39'
Dimitri Bisoli
46'
Florian Aye← Ernesto Torregrossa
55'
Davide Calabria
61'
Krzysztof Piątek← André Silva
65'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
65'
Lucas Paquetá← Hakan Çalhanoğlu
76'
Luca Tremolada← Nikolas Špalek
80'
Fabio Borini← Samu Castillejo
90'
Sandro Tonali

Possession

62%AC

Shots

16AC

Pass accuracy

54%AC

Statistics

ACBrescia
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots6
5Corners3
14Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots6
4On Target1
7Off Target3
5Blocked2
11Inside Box3
5Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
519Total Passes310
441Accurate Passes221
85%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls18
3Yellow Cards4
0Offsides6

Serie A: AC Milan 1–0 Brescia

AC Milan beat Brescia 1-0 in Serie A on August 31, 2019.

Goals: Hakan Çalhanoğlu (12').

AC Milan controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.