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Bremer SV vs Altona 93 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bremer SV
Bremer SV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Altona 93
Altona 93
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bremer SV21%
×Draw19%
Altona 9360%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremer SV
1.44
Altona 93
2.50

Altona 93 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bremer SV
1.63
Altona 93
2.25

allows per match

Bremer SV
2.75
Altona 93
1.25

finishing

Bremer SV+0.00on par
Altona 93+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer SV ↓

Altona 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bremer SV or draw
40%
Bremer SV or Altona 93
81%
Draw or Altona 93
79%

Winning margin

Bremer SV wins by 2+
9%
Altona 93 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Bremer SV 1+ goals
76%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
42%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
18%
Altona 93 1+ goals
92%
Altona 93 2+ goals
71%
Altona 93 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Bremer SV (draw refunded)
26%
Altona 93 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer SV at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Altona 93 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer SV attack 1.63 + Altona 93 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Altona 93 attack 2.25 + Bremer SV defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bremer SV scores more
21%
level
19%
Altona 93 scores more
60%

Altona 93 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Altona 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bremer
Altona
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć
A. Bergmann
Manager: A. Bergmann

Match Recap: Bremer SV vs Altona 93

Bremer SV and Altona 93 drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.