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Bremer SV vs Altona 93 — League #84 2026

Bremer SV
Bremer SV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Altona 93
Altona 93
L. G. Schmidt 86'
12/7/2025League #84League #84 · North - 22Stadion am Panzenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bremer SV45%
×Draw22%
Altona 9333%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremer SV
1.95
Altona 93
1.65

Bremer SV creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bremer SV
1.83
Altona 93
1.29

allows per match

Bremer SV
2.00
Altona 93
2.07

finishing

Bremer SV+0.00on par
Altona 93+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer SV ↓

Altona 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bremer SV or draw
67%
Bremer SV or Altona 93
78%
Draw or Altona 93
55%

Winning margin

Bremer SV wins by 2+
25%
Altona 93 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bremer SV 1+ goals
86%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
58%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
31%
Altona 93 1+ goals
81%
Altona 93 2+ goals
49%
Altona 93 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bremer SV (draw refunded)
58%
Altona 93 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer SV at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Altona 93 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer SV attack 1.83 + Altona 93 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.95

Altona 93 attack 1.29 + Bremer SV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bremer SV scores more
45%
level
22%
Altona 93 scores more
33%

Bremer SV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bremer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

86'
L. G. Schmidt
Bremer
Altona
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć
A. Bergmann
Manager: A. Bergmann

League #84: Bremer SV 1–0 Altona 93

Bremer SV beat Altona 93 1-0 in League #84 on December 7, 2025.

Goals: L. G. Schmidt (86').

The match was played at Stadion am Panzenberg in Bremen.