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Altona 93 vs Bremer SV — League #84 2026

Altona 93
Altona 93
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bremer SV
Bremer SV
R. Tobinski 67'
L. G. Schmidt 85'
8/23/2025League #84League #84 · North - 5Adolf-Jäger-Kampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Altona 9329%
×Draw24%
Bremer SV47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altona 93
1.29
Bremer SV
1.71

Bremer SV creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Altona 93
1.33
Bremer SV
1.88

allows per match

Altona 93
1.53
Bremer SV
1.25

finishing

Altona 93+0.00on par
Bremer SV+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altona 93 ↓

Bremer SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Altona 93 or draw
53%
Altona 93 or Bremer SV
76%
Draw or Bremer SV
71%

Winning margin

Altona 93 wins by 2+
12%
Bremer SV wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Altona 93 1+ goals
72%
Altona 93 2+ goals
37%
Altona 93 3+ goals
14%
Bremer SV 1+ goals
82%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
51%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Altona 93 (draw refunded)
38%
Bremer SV (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altona 93 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Bremer SV away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altona 93 attack 1.33 + Bremer SV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bremer SV attack 1.88 + Altona 93 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Altona 93 scores more
29%
level
24%
Bremer SV scores more
47%

Bremer SV at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bremer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
R. Tobinski
85'
L. G. Schmidt
Altona
Bremer
A. Bergmann
Manager: A. Bergmann
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć

Match Recap: Altona 93 vs Bremer SV

Altona 93 and Bremer SV drew 1-1 in League #84 on August 23, 2025.

Goals: R. Tobinski (67'), L. G. Schmidt (85').

The match was played at Adolf-Jäger-Kampfbahn in Hamburg.