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Brasil DE Pelotas vs Aimoré — Serie D 2018

Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Aimoré
Aimoré
6/4/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas51%
×Draw26%
Aimoré23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasil DE Pelotas
1.49
Aimoré
0.89

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 67% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
1.34
Aimoré
0.91

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
0.86
Aimoré
1.64

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par
Aimoré+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Aimoré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw
77%
Brasil DE Pelotas or Aimoré
74%
Draw or Aimoré
49%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
26%
Aimoré wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
77%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
44%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
19%
Aimoré 1+ goals
59%
Aimoré 2+ goals
22%
Aimoré 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
69%
Aimoré (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Aimoré away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.34 + Aimoré defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aimoré attack 0.91 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
51%
level
26%
Aimoré scores more
23%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brasil DE Pelotas vs Aimoré

Brasil DE Pelotas and Aimoré drew 2-2 in Serie D on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul.