Aimoré 1–1 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats

Aimoré

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brasil DE Pelotas

6/25/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Aimoré45%

×Draw31%

Brasil DE Pelotas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AimoréExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.75

Aimoré

1.13

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.75

Aimoré creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

0.95

creates per match

0.69

0.82

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Aimoré

0.95

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.69

allows per match

Aimoré

0.82

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aimoré+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aimoré ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aimoré or draw

76%

Aimoré or Brasil DE Pelotas

69%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

55%

Winning margin

Aimoré wins by 2+

19%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aimoré 1+ goals

68%

Aimoré 2+ goals

31%

Aimoré 3+ goals

11%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

53%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

17%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aimoré (draw refunded)

65%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aimoré at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aimoré attack 0.95 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + Aimoré defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aimoré scores more

45%

level

31%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

24%

Aimoré at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aimoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff