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Aimoré vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Copa Gaúcha 2024

Aimoré
Aimoré
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
10/15/2025Copa GaúchaCopa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aimoré47%
×Draw26%
Brasil DE Pelotas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aimoré
1.50
Brasil DE Pelotas
1.06

Aimoré creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aimoré
1.91
Brasil DE Pelotas
1.30

allows per match

Aimoré
0.82
Brasil DE Pelotas
1.10

finishing

Aimoré+0.00on par
Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aimoré ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aimoré or draw
73%
Aimoré or Brasil DE Pelotas
74%
Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas
53%

Winning margin

Aimoré wins by 2+
24%
Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aimoré 1+ goals
78%
Aimoré 2+ goals
44%
Aimoré 3+ goals
19%
Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
65%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
29%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aimoré (draw refunded)
64%
Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aimoré at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aimoré attack 1.91 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.30 + Aimoré defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aimoré scores more
47%
level
26%
Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
27%

Aimoré at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aimoré will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Gaúcha: Aimoré 1–2 Brasil DE Pelotas

Brasil DE Pelotas beat Aimoré 2-1 in Copa Gaúcha on October 15, 2025.